More travelers, but more couchsurfing and slimmed-down plans

(This is s slightly different version of a story we prepared for NBC News online)

 A record number of Americans will travel this weekend, packing up their bags and hitting the road to spend the Thanksgiving holiday with family, friends and maybe some football.

But travel this year will look different than it did 12 months ago, according to a bevy of early data, surveys and industry experts.

The chief culprits behind the shifts? More travelers; deepening economic anxiety; tensions around geopolitics; and a six-week government shutdown that only ended a few weeks ago.

Record travelers, but tighter belts

AAA projects that 81.8 million people will travel at least 50 miles over the long holiday weekend — 1.6 million more people than last Thanksgiving and a record level.

Six million of those travelers are expected to take domestic flights, another increase over last year. But AAA warns that some air travelers might decide to switch to a train, bus, car or RV due to a bevy of recent flight cancellations.

More than a third of Americans who have travel plans during the next six months said those plans had been affected by the six-week government shutdown, according to survey data from Longwoods International, a travel and tourism research firm.

Meanwhile, some holiday travel has simply “evaporated,” said Amir Eylon, president and CEO of Longwoods. He pointed to data from the survey that showed nearly 1 in 3 people whose holiday travel plans were affected by the shutdown had canceled them altogether.

Scott Keyes, founder of the Going.com travel app, isn’t surprised by the losses.

“Considering that over a million people went without paychecks during the shutdown, and the fact that many people wait to make plans in the final weeks before travel, it’s safe to assume that a significant chunk of travelers are skipping out on trips they otherwise might have taken,” he said in an email.

It’s too early to predict how many people will opt to take commercial buses this weekend, said Kai Boysan, CEO of Flix North America, the parent company of FlixBus and the Greyhound bus service.

“Most bus bookings happen within 24 to 72 hours of departure,” he said via email. “But searches are trending up year over year, especially around peak days: Tuesday and Wednesday before Thanksgiving and Sunday return.”

Many holiday travelers are sticking to their plans, but making adjustments for peace of mind.

“I had a couple heading out on a cruise ask me to rebook their flights so that they had a 3 ½ hour layover in Atlanta instead of just 1 ½ hours. They were just so scared their originating flight would be delayed or canceled,” said Matt Walker of Charleston, SC-based Matt Walker Travel.

Melissa Ulrich, owner of the Austin, Texas-based travel company You Pack, We Plan, said the shutdown had merely compounded the impact of existing economic pressures on some of her clients.

“We had clients choose a different level of trip,” she said. Some luxury travelers were scaling back from five-star to four-star lodgings, said Ulrich, and other clients were downgrading from four-star to 3.5-star accommodations.

“It started this summer and continued with the shutdown,” she said.

As the U.S. job market has slowed down, unemployment has crept up this year and inflation remains stubbornly elevated.

Consulting giant Deloitte’s holiday travel survey found the same factors at work: more travelers overall, but significantly fewer dollars expected to be spent per person.

Even before the government closed for six weeks, the Deloitte survey found that holiday travelers planned to spend around 18% less on average this year than they did in 2024.

“Financial concerns could be casting a shadow over the season, as many travelers are expected to scale back on the number of trips, trip duration and their overall travel budgets,” said Eileen Crowley, who leads Deloitte’s U.S. transportation, hospitality and services practice.

That means more friends and relatives expected to crash on sofas and in spare bedrooms, and potentially less money going toward tip jars, restaurant bills and theater tickets.

The Canadian question

For the more than 8 million Americans who make their living directly from travel and tourism, there could be a double whammy coming: less money coming in from domestic travelers and a significant drop in the number of visitors from abroad.

Data consistently shows that international travelers are opting out of visiting the U.S., and a range of factors is affecting their decisions.

Among them: heightened fears of detention by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, longer visa wait times and higher fees and concerns about political rhetoric and reports of violence.

Overall international travel to the United States this year is projected to be just 85% of its 2019 level, according to the U.S. Travel Association, a top industry group.

The main reason for the big decline? A massive drop in tourism from Canada.

In previous years, Canadian visitors accounted for slightly more than a quarter of all the foreign travelers to the United States, according to international travel data.

But in October there were 30% fewer Canadian residents returning from the U.S. over the border by car than there were during the same month last year, according to newly released Canadian statistics.

Likewise, by air, there were nearly a quarter fewer travelers returning to Canada from the U.S. in the same period.

Setting aside the missing Canadian visitors, the volume of international travelers to the U.S. this year is expected to be flat or down slightly.

But for many people who rely on travel for their livelihoods, it’s next year that could be make-or-break.

The United States will host the 2026 FIFA World Cup, an event that traditionally brings millions of spectators from around the world to the host country for games.

In an apparent effort to encourage visitors, the Trump administration announced a new fast-track visa system for World Cup ticket holders, allowing them access to priority scheduling for visa interviews. But potential tournament attendees could still face a patchwork of travel bans applied to various countries.

This is a slightly different version of a story we wrote for NBC News online.

Traveling for the holidays this year? The answer increasingly depends on your paycheck. 

Households earning at least six figures a year are expected to make up the largest share of holiday travelers this season — 45%, up from 38% in 2023, according to a recent survey by the consulting firm Deloitte. And they’re on track to make up a majority of paid lodging customers, expanding their ranks as hotel guests from 43% last season to 52% now.

“Travelers are looking to invest in upgrades and experiences that will make the holiday memorable,” said Kate Ferrara, vice chair for U.S. transportation, hospitality and services at Deloitte.

But that’s partly a reflection of who’s traveling in the first place.

While richer people are expanding their footprint in the holiday travel mix, lower-paid ones are shrinking theirs: Households making under $50,000 are set to make up just 23% of travelers, down from 28% a year ago, Deloitte found. (The median U.S. income was about $80,600 a year, according to the latest Census data.)

It’s another sign of what Jan Freitag, national director for hospitality market analytics at the real-estate data firm CoStar, calls the “wealth effect” rippling across the consumer economy.

“Continued higher stock and home prices make higher-end households ‘feel’ wealthier,” he said, “and so they are taking this festive season as another reason to treat themselves.” The trend helps explain why racial disparities in net worth have widened during the recovery from the pandemic, even as certain income gaps have narrowed.

It also helps explain why airlines and hotel operators have wasted no time chasing affluent customers’ disposable dollars — dangling an ever-expanding slate of luxury packages and prompts to upgrade, which have become unmissable for anyone booking a trip in recent years.

Travel brands have “done a great job since Covid of attracting these types of customers by adapting their products to this ‘premium leisure’ segment,” said Jonathan Kletzel, a travel, transportation and logistics leader for the auditing firm PwC.

Indeed, the luxury travel network Virtuoso said it’s seen seasonal bookings surge 37% since last year among its high-end clientele. Nightly rates for ritzy hotels during the holidays are up 6%, at just over $2,000 per night. Some of the most popular holiday destinations, including high-end resorts in Mexico and the Caribbean, have risen even more steeply — by about 8%, with rooms now going for over $3,000 a night.

Domestic airfares for the week of Christmas this year are averaging $352 round-trip, 9% more than last year, according to the booking site Hopper. And round-trip tickets to Europe for the week of Christmas are averaging $1,207, a whopping 33% jump from last year.

It isn’t just the ultrarich splashing out on top-tier travel and driving up prices for everyone else. Consumers overall “are more willing to pull back on goods than on experiences,” said Misty Belles, vice president for global public relations at Virtuoso. But even while they prioritize things like travel, many consumers “are also looking for value for money, and they fully expect service levels to reflect the prices they’re paying,” she added.

But while post-pandemic travel demand continues to rise, many are finding ways to venture out without spending more.

Some 64% of Americans plan to take more than one trip this holiday season, Deloitte found, up from 57% in 2023. And 28% plan to significantly increase their budgets for their longest trip, up from just 18% last year. At the same time, PwC found a big jump in travelers planning to stay with family and friends over the holidays — 56% this year versus 45% last — and falling interest in booking name-brand hotels (39%, down from 46%).

“These travel choices may suggest that people are looking to save money, likely choosing cheaper options to keep their travel costs down,” the researchers wrote.

Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst for Bankrate, said there are signs that “inflation continues to strain holiday travelers in a big way.” The consumer finance company found 86% of households making less than $100,000 annually expect to change their holiday travel plans due to cost increases (although a hefty 77% of six-figure earners said the same).

Bankrate found 29% of travelers expect to take on debt to fund their travels this season. That includes 22% who plan to carry a credit card balance, and 10% who plan to use “buy now, pay later” services.

“They don’t want to skip the trip entirely, but they’re willing to cut some corners to save money,” said Rossman.